Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
EGYPremier League · Matchday 6Monday, 12 October 2026 · Arab Contractors Stadium
El Mokawloon
7th · 11 pts1–1FULL TIME
Masr
10th · 11 pts53% El
25% Draw
22% Masr
OUR PICK
El Mokawloon to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.94
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X3.9924.51
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
El MokawloonMasr1.4Goals per game1.1
1.0Conceded per game1.3
1.38Points per game1.38
38%Win rate38%
3Goal difference-1
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
El Mokawloon form
LLWDWA Al Ahly1–0
A Zamalek SC2–1
A Enppi0–3
H Masr1–1
H El Gouna FC2–0
Masr form
LLWDDA Ceramica Cleopatra2–1
A Azam1–0
H Future FC3–2
H Azam1–1
A El Mokawloon1–1
Head to head
0
El
4
Draw
1
Masr
Oct 2026El Mokawloon – Masr1–1
Apr 2026Masr – El Mokawloon0–0
Mar 2026El Mokawloon – Masr1–1
Mar 2026Masr – El Mokawloon0–0
Aug 2025El Mokawloon – Masr0–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Pyramids FC8+1524
2Al Ahly8+920
3Zamalek SC8+719
4Ceramica Cleopatra8+718
5Al Ittihad8+314
6Future FC8+213
7El Mokawloon8+311
8National Bank of Egypt8011
9Smouha SC8011
10Masr8-111
Match preview
Our model makes El Mokawloon clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.60 for El Mokawloon, 0.94 for Masr), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
El Mokawloon sit 7th on 11 points; Masr are 10th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.