Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 11Friday, 6 November 2026 · Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion
Dynamo Dresden
18th · 8 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9th · 12 pts38% Dynamo
24% Draw
38% SpVgg
OUR PICK
Dynamo Dresden to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.63
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.50
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X4.1222.66
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Dynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther Fürth1.2Goals per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.6
0.80Points per game1.20
20%Win rate30%
-8Goal difference-3
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Dynamo Dresden form
LWLWDA Hannover 962–1
H FC Schalke 042–0
A Holstein Kiel3–0
H 1. FC Magdeburg2–0
A VfL Osnabrück1–1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth form
WLWLLH Holstein Kiel1–0
A VfL Osnabrück3–0
H Eintracht Braunschweig2–0
A Hertha BSC2–1
A VfB Stuttgart5–0
Head to head
1
Dynamo
2
Draw
2
SpVgg
Jan 2026Dynamo Dresden – SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–0
Aug 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Dynamo Dresden3–2
Jun 2020Dynamo Dresden – SpVgg Greuther Furth1–1
Oct 2019SpVgg Greuther Furth – Dynamo Dresden2–0
Apr 2019SpVgg Greuther Furth – Dynamo Dresden0–0
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Dynamo Dresden 38%, the draw 24%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.51 for Dynamo Dresden, 1.50 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dynamo Dresden sit 18th on 8 points; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.