Over 1.5 goals@1.68
Over 1.5
59%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · East End Park
Dunfermline
3rd · 24 pts0–0FULL TIME
Livingston
5th · 20 pts45% Dunfermline
30% Draw
25% Livingston
OUR PICK
Dunfermline to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.23
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.81
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.23X3.3223.99
Goals 2.5Over2.95Under1.48
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Under 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.63
NG
61%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
DunfermlineLivingston1.2Goals per game1.4
0.5Conceded per game0.8
1.85Points per game1.54
46%Win rate46%
8Goal difference7
11Form, last 5 (pts)7
Dunfermline form
WWWDDH Inverness CT5–1
A Stenhousemuir0–1
A Queen's Park0–1
H Partick1–1
H Livingston0–0
Livingston form
WWDLLA Stenhousemuir0–3
H Arbroath1–0
A Dunfermline0–0
H Partick1–2
H Ayr Utd1–2
Head to head
1
Dunfermline
2
Draw
2
Livingston
Oct 2026Dunfermline – Livingston0–0
Aug 2026Livingston – Dunfermline2–0
Apr 2025Dunfermline – Livingston1–0
Feb 2025Livingston – Dunfermline0–0
Feb 2025Dunfermline – Livingston0–2
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Dunfermline slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.19 for Dunfermline, 0.81 for Livingston), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dunfermline sit 3rd on 24 points; Livingston are 5th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.