Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
SCOPremiership · Matchday 11Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Dens Park
Dundee
5th · 17 pts3–1FULL TIME
Kilmarnock
11th · 9 pts67% Dundee
19% Draw
14% Kilmarnock
OUR PICK
Dundee to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.49
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.94
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.49X5.4027.04
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
DundeeKilmarnock1.5Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game2.3
1.55Points per game0.75
45%Win rate17%
4Goal difference-15
10Form, last 5 (pts)4
Dundee form
WLDWWH Kilmarnock3–1
A ST Mirren2–1
H Rangers2–2
A Falkirk1–2
H Motherwell2–1
Kilmarnock form
DLLWLH ST Johnstone2–2
A Dundee3–1
A Falkirk3–0
H Motherwell3–2
A Rangers3–1
Head to head
3
Dundee
1
Draw
1
Kilmarnock
Oct 2026Dundee – Kilmarnock3–1
May 2026Kilmarnock – Dundee3–1
Apr 2026Kilmarnock – Dundee2–2
Jan 2026Kilmarnock – Dundee1–2
Dec 2025Dundee – Kilmarnock2–1
Premiership table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
Match preview
Our model makes Dundee clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.27 for Dundee, 0.94 for Kilmarnock), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dundee sit 5th on 17 points; Kilmarnock are 11th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.