Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
BULFirst League · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Gradski stadion
Dunav Ruse
10th · 11 pts2–0FULL TIME
Spartak Varna
8th · 13 pts45% Dunav
25% Draw
30% Spartak
OUR PICK
Dunav Ruse to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.21
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.21X4.0423.34
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Dunav RuseSpartak Varna1.2Goals per game0.9
1.7Conceded per game1.8
0.85Points per game1.00
23%Win rate23%
-7Goal difference-11
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Dunav Ruse form
LWWWDH Levski Sofia0–1
H Spartak Varna2–0
A Rilski Sportist2–3
A Septemvri Sofia2–3
A Ludogorets II1–1
Spartak Varna form
LLWWLA CSKA 19486–1
A Dunav Ruse2–0
A Etar Veliko Tarnovo2–4
A Botev Vratsa0–1
H Lokomotiv Sofia0–1
Head to head
1
Dunav
1
Draw
3
Spartak
Oct 2026Dunav Ruse – Spartak Varna2–0
Jun 2026Spartak Varna – Dunav Ruse0–0
Jan 2026Dunav Ruse – Spartak Varna1–3
Mar 2024Spartak Varna – Dunav Ruse3–1
Sept 2023Dunav Ruse – Spartak Varna0–1
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model makes Dunav Ruse slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.58 for Dunav Ruse, 1.24 for Spartak Varna), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dunav Ruse sit 10th on 11 points; Spartak Varna are 8th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.