Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · GN Bouw Stadion
Dordrecht
18th · 11 pts2–4FULL TIME
VVV Venlo
2nd · 28 pts18% Dordrecht
17% Draw
65% VVV
OUR PICK
VVV Venlo to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
1.44 – 2.77
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.54X5.9421.54
Goals 2.5Over1.27Under4.49
Both scoreGG1.40NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.27
Over 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.40
GG
72%
Double chance@1.20
12
83%
Season stats
DordrechtVVV Venlo1.3Goals per game2.8
2.6Conceded per game1.6
0.92Points per game2.15
25%Win rate69%
-15Goal difference15
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
Dordrecht form
LLWLDA SC Genemuiden3–2
H VVV Venlo2–4
A Jong PSV U210–1
H Emmen0–3
A Den Bosch1–1
VVV Venlo form
WLWDWA MVV1–2
H Vitesse0–2
A Dordrecht2–4
H Jong AZ4–4
A Jong Ajax0–3
Head to head
3
Dordrecht
0
Draw
2
VVV
Oct 2026Dordrecht – VVV Venlo2–4
Dec 2025VVV Venlo – Dordrecht3–1
Oct 2025Dordrecht – VVV Venlo2–0
Mar 2025Dordrecht – VVV Venlo4–0
Oct 2024VVV Venlo – Dordrecht2–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes VVV Venlo clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (1.44 for Dordrecht, 2.77 for VVV Venlo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dordrecht sit 18th on 11 points; VVV Venlo are 2nd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.