NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 14Friday, 6 November 2026 · M-Scores Stadion

Dordrecht

18th · 11 pts

20:00KICK-OFF WAT

NAC Breda

6th · 21 pts

26% Dordrecht

20% Draw

54% NAC

OUR PICK

NAC Breda to win

Model probability 54% · fair odds

1.86

Expected goals

1.53 – 2.24

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X213.83X4.9421.86

Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.49

Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.12

Over 1.5

89%

Over/Under 2.5@1.38

Over 2.5

73%

Both teams to score@1.43

70%

Double chance@1.25

80%

Season stats

DordrechtNAC Breda

1.3Goals per game1.9

2.6Conceded per game1.7

0.92Points per game1.75

25%Win rate50%

-15Goal difference3

7Form, last 5 (pts)11

Dordrecht form

LLWLD

A SC Genemuiden3–2

H VVV Venlo2–4

A Jong PSV U210–1

H Emmen0–3

A Den Bosch1–1

NAC Breda form

WDWWD

A JOS Watergraafsmeer1–3

H Heracles1–1

A Helmond Sport0–2

H MVV1–0

A Vitesse2–2

Head to head

Dordrecht

Draw

NAC

Apr 2024NAC Breda – Dordrecht1–4

Aug 2023Dordrecht – NAC Breda2–2

Feb 2023NAC Breda – Dordrecht3–2

Oct 2022Dordrecht – NAC Breda0–3

Apr 2022NAC Breda – Dordrecht1–2

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Heracles12+2329

2VVV Venlo13+1528

3Almere City FC13+1425

4Roda13+525

5Emmen13+225

6NAC Breda12+321

7FC Volendam13+819

8Den Bosch13+218

9Vitesse12-117

10Jong AZ13+417

Match preview

Our model makes NAC Breda slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.53 for Dordrecht, 2.24 for NAC Breda), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Dordrecht sit 18th on 11 points; NAC Breda are 6th on 21.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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