Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · GN Bouw Stadion
Dordrecht
18th · 11 pts0–3FULL TIME
Emmen
5th · 25 pts34% Dordrecht
20% Draw
46% Emmen
OUR PICK
Emmen to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.96X4.9222.18
Goals 2.5Over1.29Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
DordrechtEmmen1.3Goals per game2.0
2.6Conceded per game1.8
0.92Points per game1.92
25%Win rate62%
-15Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Dordrecht form
LLWLDA SC Genemuiden3–2
H VVV Venlo2–4
A Jong PSV U210–1
H Emmen0–3
A Den Bosch1–1
Emmen form
LWWWWH Den Bosch0–5
A Groningen0–2
A Vitesse0–2
H Almere City FC2–1
A Dordrecht0–3
Head to head
3
Dordrecht
0
Draw
2
Emmen
Oct 2026Dordrecht – Emmen0–3
Feb 2026Dordrecht – Emmen1–0
Sept 2025Emmen – Dordrecht2–0
Feb 2025Dordrecht – Emmen3–0
Aug 2024Emmen – Dordrecht1–2
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Emmen slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (1.88 for Dordrecht, 2.20 for Emmen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dordrecht sit 18th on 11 points; Emmen are 5th on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.