Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Keepmoat Stadium
Doncaster
20th · 12 pts1–0FULL TIME
Burton Albion
15th · 17 pts35% Doncaster
25% Draw
40% Burton
OUR PICK
Burton Albion to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.52
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.86X4.0622.48
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
DoncasterBurton Albion1.1Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game1.5
0.92Points per game1.21
23%Win rate29%
-8Goal difference-3
3Form, last 5 (pts)5
Doncaster form
LLWLLA Milton Keynes Dons6–1
A Luton3–1
H Sheffield Wednesday2–0
H Stockport County0–2
A Leicester2–1
Burton Albion form
LWDDLA Wycombe2–0
H Leyton Orient2–1
H Bradford0–0
A Peterborough2–2
A Doncaster1–0
Head to head
4
Doncaster
1
Draw
0
Burton
Oct 2026Doncaster – Burton Albion1–0
Feb 2026Burton Albion – Doncaster1–2
Oct 2025Doncaster – Burton Albion1–1
Nov 2023Doncaster – Burton Albion2–1
Apr 2022Doncaster – Burton Albion2–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Doncaster 35%, the draw 25%, Burton Albion 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.40 for Doncaster, 1.52 for Burton Albion), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Doncaster sit 20th on 12 points; Burton Albion are 15th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.