Over 1.5 goals@1.78
Over 1.5
56%
NGANPFL · Matchday 7Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Pantami Stadium
Doma United
12th · 15 pts1–0FULL TIME
Warri Wolves
14th · 13 pts38% Doma
32% Draw
30% Warri
OUR PICK
Doma United to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.61
Expected goals
1.02 – 0.86
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.61X3.1423.36
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.41
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.42
1X
70%
Season stats
Doma UnitedWarri Wolves1.3Goals per game0.6
1.3Conceded per game0.7
1.50Points per game1.18
40%Win rate27%
0Goal difference-1
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Doma United form
DDLWLH Ikorodu City2–2
H Kun Khalifat FC1–1
A Nasarawa United2–0
H Warri Wolves1–0
A Katsina United2–1
Warri Wolves form
DDDWLA Plateau United1–1
H Kano Pillars0–0
A Enyimba0–0
H Inter Lagos3–1
A Doma United1–0
Head to head
1
Doma
0
Draw
0
Warri
Oct 2026Doma United – Warri Wolves1–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Doma United 38%, the draw 32%, Warri Wolves 30%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.02 for Doma United, 0.86 for Warri Wolves), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Doma United sit 12th on 15 points; Warri Wolves are 14th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.