Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Stadion Maksimir
Dinamo Zagreb
18th · 4 pts2–4FULL TIME
NEC Nijmegen
20th · 4 pts63% Dinamo
23% Draw
15% NEC
OUR PICK
Dinamo Zagreb to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.71
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.60X4.3826.84
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.73
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.73
NG
58%
Double chance@1.17
1X
85%
Season stats
Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen1.0Goals per game1.7
1.3Conceded per game2.7
1.33Points per game1.33
33%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference-3
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Dinamo Zagreb form
LWLWWA Rudes1–0
H HNK Rijeka2–1
H NEC Nijmegen2–4
A NK Slaven Belupo1–5
H Anderlecht1–0
NEC Nijmegen form
LDWDDA Heerenveen1–0
H Groningen2–2
A Dinamo Zagreb2–4
H Fortuna Sittard2–2
H Levski Sofia1–1
Head to head
0
Dinamo
0
Draw
1
NEC
Oct 2026Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen2–4
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.76 for Dinamo Zagreb, 0.71 for NEC Nijmegen), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dinamo Zagreb sit 18th on 4 points; NEC Nijmegen are 20th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.