Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
CROHNL · Matchday 11Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Stadion Maksimir
Dinamo Zagreb
2nd · 22 pts2–1FULL TIME
HNK Rijeka
5th · 18 pts55% Dinamo
21% Draw
24% HNK
OUR PICK
Dinamo Zagreb to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.32
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X4.7524.19
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Dinamo ZagrebHNK Rijeka2.3Goals per game1.6
1.3Conceded per game1.4
2.00Points per game1.64
64%Win rate45%
11Goal difference3
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Dinamo Zagreb form
LWLWWA Rudes1–0
H HNK Rijeka2–1
H NEC Nijmegen2–4
A NK Slaven Belupo1–5
H Anderlecht1–0
HNK Rijeka form
DLWWLH NK Varazdin1–1
A Dinamo Zagreb2–1
A Karlovac 19191–4
A Rudes1–2
A NK Slaven Belupo4–1
Head to head
3
Dinamo
2
Draw
0
HNK
Oct 2026Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Rijeka2–1
May 2026Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Rijeka2–0
Apr 2026Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Rijeka2–2
Feb 2026HNK Rijeka – Dinamo Zagreb0–0
Nov 2025Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Rijeka2–1
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.09 for Dinamo Zagreb, 1.32 for HNK Rijeka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dinamo Zagreb sit 2nd on 22 points; HNK Rijeka are 5th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.