Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 8Monday, 12 October 2026 · Stade Gaston-Gérard
Dijon
8th · 15 pts4–2FULL TIME
Metz
10th · 14 pts41% Dijon
23% Draw
36% Metz
OUR PICK
Dijon to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X4.3022.81
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
DijonMetz1.8Goals per game1.5
1.7Conceded per game1.5
1.36Points per game1.27
36%Win rate27%
1Goal difference0
9Form, last 5 (pts)5
Dijon form
WLLWDA Grenoble1–3
H Rodez1–2
A Reims4–2
H Metz4–2
H Estac Troyes2–2
Metz form
LDWLDH PAU1–3
A Dunkerque1–1
H Sochaux3–2
A Dijon4–2
H Saint Etienne2–2
Head to head
2
Dijon
2
Draw
1
Metz
Oct 2026Dijon – Metz4–2
Feb 2023Dijon – Metz0–0
Aug 2022Metz – Dijon1–2
May 2021Dijon – Metz1–5
Nov 2020Metz – Dijon1–1
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3PAU11+520
4Nancy10+419
5Reims10+818
6RED Star FC 9310+117
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Dijon 41%, the draw 23%, Metz 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.68 for Dijon, 1.55 for Metz), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Dijon sit 8th on 15 points; Metz are 10th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.