Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
MARBotola Pro · Matchday 4Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stade El Abdi
Difaa EL Jadida
9th · 8 pts4–1FULL TIME
Moghreb Tetouan
15th · 3 pts54% Difaa
25% Draw
21% Moghreb
OUR PICK
Difaa EL Jadida to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.89
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.87X3.9624.72
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
Difaa EL JadidaMoghreb Tetouan2.2Goals per game0.3
2.2Conceded per game1.5
1.33Points per game0.50
33%Win rate0%
0Goal difference-7
8Form, last 5 (pts)2
Difaa EL Jadida form
DDWWLH UTS Rabat1–1
A Kawkab Marrakech1–1
H Moghreb Tetouan4–1
A Amal Tiznit2–5
H Wydad AC0–2
Moghreb Tetouan form
LLLDDA Wydad AC1–0
H Widad Témara0–3
A Difaa EL Jadida4–1
H FUS Rabat0–0
A Ittihad Tanger1–1
Head to head
3
Difaa
2
Draw
0
Moghreb
Oct 2026Difaa EL Jadida – Moghreb Tetouan4–1
Feb 2025Moghreb Tetouan – Difaa EL Jadida1–3
Oct 2024Difaa EL Jadida – Moghreb Tetouan1–0
Apr 2023Difaa EL Jadida – Moghreb Tetouan0–0
Oct 2022Moghreb Tetouan – Difaa EL Jadida1–1
Botola Pro table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Kawkab Marrakech6+313
2CODM Meknès6+511
3Wydad AC6+211
4Ittihad Tanger6+110
5Widad Témara6+39
6FAR Rabat4+38
7Hassania Agadir6+28
8UTS Rabat608
9Difaa EL Jadida608
10Maghreb Fès608
Match preview
Our model makes Difaa EL Jadida clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.58 for Difaa EL Jadida, 0.89 for Moghreb Tetouan), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Difaa EL Jadida sit 9th on 8 points; Moghreb Tetouan are 15th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.