Over 1.5 goals@1.56
Over 1.5
64%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 3 October 2026 · Keyworth Stadium
Detroit City
3rd · 51 pts1–0FULL TIME
Birmingham Legion
11th · 30 pts55% Detroit
27% Draw
18% Birmingham
OUR PICK
Detroit City to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.72
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.81X3.7625.47
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.60
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
60%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Detroit CityBirmingham Legion1.1Goals per game1.3
0.7Conceded per game1.5
1.70Points per game1.00
47%Win rate20%
13Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Detroit City form
LDLWWH Hartford Athletic1–2
A Louisville City0–0
A Tampa Bay Rowdies1–0
H Rhode Island1–0
H Birmingham Legion1–0
Birmingham Legion form
LWDWLA Pittsburgh Riverhounds2–1
A Brooklyn1–2
H Loudoun United0–0
A Sporting JAX0–1
A Detroit City1–0
Head to head
3
Detroit
2
Draw
0
Birmingham
Oct 2026Detroit City – Birmingham Legion1–0
Jul 2026Birmingham Legion – Detroit City1–2
May 2025Birmingham Legion – Detroit City1–1
Mar 2025Detroit City – Birmingham Legion2–2
Aug 2024Birmingham Legion – Detroit City0–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Detroit City clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.47 for Detroit City, 0.72 for Birmingham Legion), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Detroit City sit 3rd on 51 points; Birmingham Legion are 11th on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.