Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby
23rd · 7 pts1–1FULL TIME
Wrexham
18th · 14 pts30% Derby
26% Draw
43% Wrexham
OUR PICK
Wrexham to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.31
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.31X3.7822.31
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
DerbyWrexham0.8Goals per game1.2
1.9Conceded per game1.5
0.54Points per game1.08
8%Win rate23%
-14Goal difference-4
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Derby form
LDLLDA Millwall4–1
A Sheffield Utd1–1
H Stoke City0–1
A QPR4–1
H Wrexham1–1
Wrexham form
LLWLDA Sheffield Utd1–0
A Blackburn2–0
H Preston4–1
H West Brom1–2
A Derby1–1
Head to head
0
Derby
2
Draw
1
Wrexham
Oct 2026Derby – Wrexham1–1
Jan 2026Derby – Wrexham1–2
Sept 2025Wrexham – Derby1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Wrexham slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.13 for Derby, 1.41 for Wrexham), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Derby sit 23rd on 7 points; Wrexham are 18th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.