Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby
23rd · 7 pts0–1FULL TIME
Stoke City
7th · 23 pts24% Derby
23% Draw
53% Stoke
OUR PICK
Stoke City to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.77
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.25X4.2721.89
Goals 2.5Over1.83Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
DerbyStoke City0.8Goals per game1.5
1.9Conceded per game1.2
0.54Points per game1.77
8%Win rate54%
-14Goal difference4
2Form, last 5 (pts)10
Derby form
LDLLDA Millwall4–1
A Sheffield Utd1–1
H Stoke City0–1
A QPR4–1
H Wrexham1–1
Stoke City form
WDWLWH Preston2–0
H Bristol City0–0
A Derby0–1
H Middlesbrough2–3
A Bolton1–2
Head to head
1
Derby
1
Draw
3
Stoke
Oct 2026Derby – Stoke City0–1
Apr 2026Derby – Stoke City2–0
Aug 2025Stoke City – Derby3–1
May 2025Derby – Stoke City0–0
Nov 2024Stoke City – Derby2–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Stoke City slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.10 for Derby, 1.77 for Stoke City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Derby sit 23rd on 7 points; Stoke City are 7th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.