Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby
23rd · 7 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Norwich
15th · 15 pts27% Derby
23% Draw
50% Norwich
OUR PICK
Norwich to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.88
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.68X4.4421.99
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
DerbyNorwich0.8Goals per game1.8
1.9Conceded per game1.8
0.54Points per game1.15
8%Win rate38%
-14Goal difference-1
2Form, last 5 (pts)6
Derby form
LDLLDA Millwall4–1
A Sheffield Utd1–1
H Stoke City0–1
A QPR4–1
H Wrexham1–1
Norwich form
WWLLLH Watford3–2
A Charlton1–3
H Portsmouth0–1
H Southampton0–1
A Swansea2–1
Head to head
1
Derby
1
Draw
3
Norwich
Apr 2026Norwich – Derby2–1
Oct 2025Derby – Norwich1–0
Feb 2025Norwich – Derby1–1
Sept 2024Derby – Norwich2–3
Apr 2021Derby – Norwich0–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Norwich slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.33 for Derby, 1.88 for Norwich), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Derby sit 23rd on 7 points; Norwich are 15th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.