Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 15Friday, 6 November 2026 · Pride Park
Derby
23rd · 7 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Bolton
19th · 14 pts35% Derby
24% Draw
41% Bolton
OUR PICK
Bolton to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.46
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.86X4.1022.46
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
DerbyBolton0.8Goals per game1.4
1.9Conceded per game2.0
0.54Points per game1.08
8%Win rate31%
-14Goal difference-8
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Derby form
LDLLDA Millwall4–1
A Sheffield Utd1–1
H Stoke City0–1
A QPR4–1
H Wrexham1–1
Bolton form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Derby
0
Draw
0
Bolton
These sides haven't met recently.
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Derby 35%, the draw 24%, Bolton 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.42 for Derby, 1.55 for Bolton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Derby sit 23rd on 7 points; Bolton are 19th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.