Over 1.5 goals@2.16
Over 1.5
46%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 13Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Estadio Guillermo Laza
Deportivo Riestra
15th · 11 pts1–1FULL TIME
Union Santa Fe
8th · 21 pts21% Deportivo
35% Draw
45% Union
OUR PICK
Union Santa Fe to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
0.57 – 0.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.84X2.8922.24
Goals 2.5Over4.49Under1.26
Both scoreGG3.49NG1.38
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Under 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.38
NG
73%
Double chance@1.26
X2
79%
Season stats
Deportivo RiestraUnion Santa Fe0.3Goals per game1.5
0.8Conceded per game1.3
0.69Points per game1.31
6%Win rate31%
-7Goal difference4
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Deportivo Riestra form
LLDLDH Talleres Cordoba0–3
A Instituto Cordoba1–0
H Union Santa Fe1–1
A San Lorenzo1–0
H Central Cordoba de Santiago1–1
Union Santa Fe form
DWDLLA Newells Old Boys1–1
H Estudiantes L.P.3–1
A Deportivo Riestra1–1
H Defensa Y Justicia0–2
A Boca Juniors3–0
Head to head
0
Deportivo
2
Draw
1
Union
Oct 2026Deportivo Riestra – Union Santa Fe1–1
Apr 2026Union Santa Fe – Deportivo Riestra2–0
Aug 2024Union Santa Fe – Deportivo Riestra0–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Union Santa Fe slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.57 for Deportivo Riestra, 0.99 for Union Santa Fe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Riestra sit 15th on 11 points; Union Santa Fe are 8th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.