Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 17Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Estadio Departamental Libertad
Deportivo Pasto
3rd · 34 pts00:20KICK-OFF WAT
Jaguares
16th · 18 pts64% Deportivo
20% Draw
17% Jaguares
OUR PICK
Deportivo Pasto to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.01
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.57X5.0826.04
Goals 2.5Over1.63Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Season stats
Deportivo PastoJaguares1.5Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.7
1.79Points per game0.95
53%Win rate26%
4Goal difference-13
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Deportivo Pasto form
LWLLDA Bucaramanga2–1
A Deportes Tolima0–1
A Atletico Nacional3–0
H Alianza Valledupar0–1
H Fortaleza FC0–0
Jaguares form
LWLLWA Deportivo Pereira1–0
H Llaneros1–0
A Santa Fe2–1
A Millonarios4–1
H Deportes Tolima3–2
Head to head
2
Deportivo
2
Draw
1
Jaguares
Apr 2026Jaguares – Deportivo Pasto2–3
Aug 2024Jaguares – Deportivo Pasto0–0
Feb 2024Deportivo Pasto – Jaguares1–1
Oct 2023Jaguares – Deportivo Pasto1–0
Sept 2023Deportivo Pasto – Jaguares1–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Pasto clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.17 for Deportivo Pasto, 1.01 for Jaguares), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd on 34 points; Jaguares are 16th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.