Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 13Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estadio Departamental Libertad
Deportivo Pasto
3rd · 34 pts0–0FULL TIME
Fortaleza FC
15th · 22 pts56% Deportivo
22% Draw
22% Fortaleza
OUR PICK
Deportivo Pasto to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.19
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X4.6424.48
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.27
12
78%
Season stats
Deportivo PastoFortaleza FC1.5Goals per game1.2
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.79Points per game1.16
53%Win rate26%
4Goal difference-5
4Form, last 5 (pts)3
Deportivo Pasto form
LWLLDA Bucaramanga2–1
A Deportes Tolima0–1
A Atletico Nacional3–0
H Alianza Valledupar0–1
H Fortaleza FC0–0
Fortaleza FC form
LDLDDA America de Cali2–1
H Deportivo Cali1–1
A Internacional de Bogota2–1
A Santa Fe2–2
H Millonarios1–1
Head to head
2
Deportivo
2
Draw
1
Fortaleza
Oct 2026Deportivo Pasto – Fortaleza FC0–0
Mar 2026Fortaleza FC – Deportivo Pasto1–2
Oct 2025Fortaleza FC – Deportivo Pasto2–0
May 2025Deportivo Pasto – Fortaleza FC1–0
Sept 2024Fortaleza FC – Deportivo Pasto0–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Pasto clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.00 for Deportivo Pasto, 1.19 for Fortaleza FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd on 34 points; Fortaleza FC are 15th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.