Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 15Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Estadio Departamental Libertad
Deportivo Pasto
3rd · 34 pts0–1FULL TIME
Alianza Valledupar
17th · 17 pts67% Deportivo
20% Draw
12% Alianza
OUR PICK
Deportivo Pasto to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.48
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.72
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.48X4.9728.01
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
Deportivo PastoAlianza Valledupar1.5Goals per game0.7
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.79Points per game0.89
53%Win rate16%
4Goal difference-14
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Deportivo Pasto form
LWLLDA Bucaramanga2–1
A Deportes Tolima0–1
A Atletico Nacional3–0
H Alianza Valledupar0–1
H Fortaleza FC0–0
Alianza Valledupar form
DLWWDA Independiente Medellin1–1
A Once Caldas1–0
H Internacional de Bogota1–0
A Deportivo Pasto0–1
H Águilas Doradas2–2
Head to head
1
Deportivo
2
Draw
2
Alianza
Oct 2026Deportivo Pasto – Alianza Valledupar0–1
Apr 2026Alianza Valledupar – Deportivo Pasto0–0
Oct 2025Deportivo Pasto – Alianza Valledupar3–3
Apr 2025Alianza Valledupar – Deportivo Pasto1–0
Sept 2024Deportivo Pasto – Alianza Valledupar1–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Pasto clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (2.00 for Deportivo Pasto, 0.72 for Alianza Valledupar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd on 34 points; Alianza Valledupar are 17th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.