Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
67%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 36Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano
Deportivo Moron
3rd · 61 pts2–0FULL TIME
Ciudad de Bolívar
7th · 51 pts54% Deportivo
26% Draw
20% Ciudad
OUR PICK
Deportivo Moron to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.79
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X3.8225.07
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.67
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
58%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
Deportivo MoronCiudad de Bolívar1.5Goals per game0.8
1.0Conceded per game0.9
1.69Points per game1.42
50%Win rate36%
16Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Deportivo Moron form
WLLLWH Ciudad de Bolívar2–0
A Almirante Brown1–0
H Atletico Mitre0–2
A CA Estudiantes2–0
H All Boys2–1
Ciudad de Bolívar form
LLWWWA Deportivo Moron2–0
H Colon Santa Fe0–2
A San Miguel1–2
H San Telmo1–0
A Acassuso0–1
Head to head
2
Deportivo
0
Draw
0
Ciudad
Oct 2026Deportivo Moron – Ciudad de Bolívar2–0
Jun 2026Ciudad de Bolívar – Deportivo Moron1–2
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Moron clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.50 for Deportivo Moron, 0.79 for Ciudad de Bolívar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Moron sit 3rd on 61 points; Ciudad de Bolívar are 7th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.