Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano
Deportivo Moron
3rd · 61 pts0–2FULL TIME
Atletico Mitre
13th · 40 pts66% Deportivo
21% Draw
14% Atletico
OUR PICK
Deportivo Moron to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.53
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.77
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.53X4.8427.26
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
Deportivo MoronAtletico Mitre1.5Goals per game0.9
1.0Conceded per game1.2
1.69Points per game1.11
50%Win rate22%
16Goal difference-11
6Form, last 5 (pts)8
Deportivo Moron form
WLLLWH Ciudad de Bolívar2–0
A Almirante Brown1–0
H Atletico Mitre0–2
A CA Estudiantes2–0
H All Boys2–1
Atletico Mitre form
DLWDWA Los Andes0–0
H Godoy Cruz0–3
A Deportivo Moron0–2
H Colon Santa Fe0–0
A San Miguel0–2
Head to head
2
Deportivo
1
Draw
2
Atletico
Oct 2026Deportivo Moron – Atletico Mitre0–2
May 2026Atletico Mitre – Deportivo Moron1–3
Sept 2025Deportivo Moron – Atletico Mitre3–0
May 2025Atletico Mitre – Deportivo Moron0–0
Sept 2024Deportivo Moron – Atletico Mitre1–2
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Moron clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.97 for Deportivo Moron, 0.77 for Atletico Mitre), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Moron sit 3rd on 61 points; Atletico Mitre are 13th on 40.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.