Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
67%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel
Deportivo Maldonado
3rd · 62 pts1–1FULL TIME
Liverpool Montevideo
6th · 59 pts45% Deportivo
28% Draw
27% Liverpool
OUR PICK
Deportivo Maldonado to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.97
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X3.6323.71
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.69
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.37
1X
73%
Season stats
Deportivo MaldonadoLiverpool Montevideo1.6Goals per game1.3
0.9Conceded per game0.9
1.82Points per game1.69
53%Win rate46%
22Goal difference16
10Form, last 5 (pts)13
Deportivo Maldonado form
WWLWDA Porongos0–4
H Danubio2–1
A Club Nacional3–2
H Albion FC4–1
H Liverpool Montevideo1–1
Liverpool Montevideo form
WWWWDH Juventud2–0
A Club Nacional0–1
H Cerro Largo1–0
H Penarol1–0
A Deportivo Maldonado1–1
Head to head
2
Deportivo
1
Draw
2
Liverpool
Oct 2026Deportivo Maldonado – Liverpool Montevideo1–1
Apr 2026Liverpool Montevideo – Deportivo Maldonado0–2
Sept 2024Deportivo Maldonado – Liverpool Montevideo0–1
Mar 2024Liverpool Montevideo – Deportivo Maldonado1–2
Dec 2023Deportivo Maldonado – Liverpool Montevideo0–2
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Maldonado slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.35 for Deportivo Maldonado, 0.97 for Liverpool Montevideo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Maldonado sit 3rd on 62 points; Liverpool Montevideo are 6th on 59.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.