Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel
Deportivo Maldonado
3rd · 62 pts2–1FULL TIME
Danubio
16th · 32 pts66% Deportivo
22% Draw
12% Danubio
OUR PICK
Deportivo Maldonado to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.52
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.63
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.52X4.6028.17
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.64
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.64
NG
61%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
Deportivo MaldonadoDanubio1.6Goals per game0.8
0.9Conceded per game1.3
1.82Points per game0.91
53%Win rate17%
22Goal difference-16
10Form, last 5 (pts)6
Deportivo Maldonado form
DWWLWA Albion FC0–0
A Porongos0–4
H Danubio2–1
A Club Nacional3–2
H Albion FC4–1
Danubio form
LWLWWH Club Nacional1–2
A Wanderers Durazno0–3
A Deportivo Maldonado2–1
H Central Espanol1–0
A Central Espanol0–6
Head to head
3
Deportivo
2
Draw
0
Danubio
Oct 2026Deportivo Maldonado – Danubio2–1
May 2026Deportivo Maldonado – Danubio3–1
Apr 2026Danubio – Deportivo Maldonado1–1
Dec 2024Deportivo Maldonado – Danubio3–1
Jun 2024Danubio – Deportivo Maldonado1–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Maldonado clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.82 for Deportivo Maldonado, 0.63 for Danubio), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Maldonado sit 3rd on 62 points; Danubio are 16th on 32.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.