Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Abel Sastre
Deportivo Madryn
4th · 60 pts1–2FULL TIME
Chaco For Ever
9th · 46 pts57% Deportivo
24% Draw
18% Chaco
OUR PICK
Deportivo Madryn to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.74
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.81
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.74X4.1025.48
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Deportivo MadrynChaco For Ever1.4Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game1.0
1.67Points per game1.28
44%Win rate33%
21Goal difference2
10Form, last 5 (pts)10
Deportivo Madryn form
WWDLWA San Miguel0–1
H San Telmo4–1
A Acassuso0–0
H Chaco For Ever1–2
A Ferro Carril Oeste0–2
Chaco For Ever form
WWLWDH Racing Cordoba3–1
A Ferro Carril Oeste0–3
H Central Norte1–2
A Deportivo Madryn1–2
H Defensores De Belgrano2–2
Head to head
3
Deportivo
1
Draw
1
Chaco
Oct 2026Deportivo Madryn – Chaco For Ever1–2
May 2026Chaco For Ever – Deportivo Madryn1–2
Sept 2024Chaco For Ever – Deportivo Madryn0–1
Apr 2024Deportivo Madryn – Chaco For Ever1–0
Oct 2023Chaco For Ever – Deportivo Madryn0–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Madryn clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.65 for Deportivo Madryn, 0.81 for Chaco For Ever), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportivo Madryn sit 4th on 60 points; Chaco For Ever are 9th on 46.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.