Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
77%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 16Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Deportes Tolima
6th · 31 pts0–1FULL TIME
Deportivo Pasto
3rd · 34 pts55% Deportes
23% Draw
22% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Deportes Tolima to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.02
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.83X4.2624.58
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
Deportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto1.4Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game1.3
1.63Points per game1.79
42%Win rate53%
10Goal difference4
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Deportes Tolima form
LLLDDH Deportivo Pasto0–1
A Águilas Doradas2–1
A Jaguares3–2
A Atletico Nacional0–0
H Chico0–0
Deportivo Pasto form
LWLLDA Bucaramanga2–1
A Deportes Tolima0–1
A Atletico Nacional3–0
H Alianza Valledupar0–1
H Fortaleza FC0–0
Head to head
2
Deportes
0
Draw
3
Deportivo
Oct 2026Deportes Tolima – Deportivo Pasto0–1
May 2026Deportivo Pasto – Deportes Tolima0–2
May 2026Deportes Tolima – Deportivo Pasto1–0
Apr 2026Deportivo Pasto – Deportes Tolima1–0
Jul 2025Deportivo Pasto – Deportes Tolima3–2
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Deportes Tolima clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.76 for Deportes Tolima, 1.02 for Deportivo Pasto), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportes Tolima sit 6th on 31 points; Deportivo Pasto are 3rd on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.