Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 13Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Deportes Tolima
6th · 31 pts0–0FULL TIME
Chico
18th · 17 pts73% Deportes
18% Draw
10% Chico
OUR PICK
Deportes Tolima to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.38
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.65
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.38X5.63210.32
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
58%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
Deportes TolimaChico1.4Goals per game0.8
0.9Conceded per game1.7
1.63Points per game0.89
42%Win rate26%
10Goal difference-17
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Deportes Tolima form
LLLDDH Deportivo Pasto0–1
A Águilas Doradas2–1
A Jaguares3–2
A Atletico Nacional0–0
H Chico0–0
Chico form
LDWLLA Deportivo Cali2–0
H Junior1–1
H Bucaramanga1–0
A Deportivo Pereira2–0
H Atletico Nacional1–4
Head to head
3
Deportes
2
Draw
0
Chico
Oct 2026Deportes Tolima – Chico0–0
Mar 2026Chico – Deportes Tolima1–1
Sept 2025Deportes Tolima – Chico4–0
Apr 2025Chico – Deportes Tolima1–4
Sept 2024Deportes Tolima – Chico2–1
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Deportes Tolima clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.18 for Deportes Tolima, 0.65 for Chico), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Deportes Tolima sit 6th on 31 points; Chico are 18th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.