Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · Stadion de Vliert
Den Bosch
8th · 18 pts2–2FULL TIME
MVV
11th · 17 pts64% Den
19% Draw
17% MVV
OUR PICK
Den Bosch to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.55
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.13
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.55X5.3625.90
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Season stats
Den BoschMVV1.8Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game2.2
1.38Points per game1.31
38%Win rate38%
2Goal difference-12
11Form, last 5 (pts)1
Den Bosch form
WWDWWA Emmen0–5
A Rijnsburgse Boys3–5
H MVV2–2
H FC OSS2–1
A Jong AZ0–1
MVV form
LLDLLH VVV Venlo1–2
H Excelsior0–3
A Den Bosch2–2
H Heracles1–5
A NAC Breda1–0
Head to head
1
Den
1
Draw
3
MVV
Oct 2026Den Bosch – MVV2–2
Jan 2026Den Bosch – MVV1–2
Sept 2025MVV – Den Bosch2–4
Jan 2025MVV – Den Bosch5–0
Oct 2024MVV – Den Bosch2–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Den Bosch clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.35 for Den Bosch, 1.13 for MVV), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Den Bosch sit 8th on 18 points; MVV are 11th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.