Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 14Saturday, 7 November 2026 · De Vliert
Den Bosch
8th · 18 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
Jong Utrecht
20th · 10 pts63% Den
18% Draw
19% Jong
OUR PICK
Den Bosch to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.42
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X5.6725.22
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.42NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.42
GG
70%
Double chance@1.21
12
82%
Season stats
Den BoschJong Utrecht1.8Goals per game1.7
1.6Conceded per game2.5
1.38Points per game0.77
38%Win rate23%
2Goal difference-11
11Form, last 5 (pts)3
Den Bosch form
WWDWWA Emmen0–5
A Rijnsburgse Boys3–5
H MVV2–2
H FC OSS2–1
A Jong AZ0–1
Jong Utrecht form
WLLLLH Dordrecht3–2
A FC Volendam6–2
H Roda1–2
A De Graafschap2–1
H VVV Venlo1–3
Head to head
3
Den
1
Draw
1
Jong
Apr 2026Den Bosch – Jong Utrecht1–1
Nov 2025Jong Utrecht – Den Bosch3–2
Jan 2025Den Bosch – Jong Utrecht2–0
Sept 2024Jong Utrecht – Den Bosch0–3
Apr 2024Jong Utrecht – Den Bosch0–2
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Den Bosch clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.63 for Den Bosch, 1.42 for Jong Utrecht), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Den Bosch sit 8th on 18 points; Jong Utrecht are 20th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.