NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Stadion de Vliert

Den Bosch

8th · 18 pts

1–1FULL TIME

Dordrecht

18th · 11 pts

70% Den

16% Draw

14% Dordrecht

OUR PICK

Den Bosch to win

Model probability 70% · fair odds

1.43

Expected goals

2.82 – 1.25

Confidence

Very high

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.43X6.3426.91

Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10

Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.10

Over 1.5

91%

Over/Under 2.5@1.30

Over 2.5

77%

Both teams to score@1.49

67%

Double chance@1.17

86%

Season stats

Den BoschDordrecht

1.8Goals per game1.3

1.6Conceded per game2.6

1.38Points per game0.92

38%Win rate25%

2Goal difference-15

11Form, last 5 (pts)7

Den Bosch form

WWDWW

A Emmen0–5

A Rijnsburgse Boys3–5

H MVV2–2

H FC OSS2–1

A Jong AZ0–1

Dordrecht form

LLWLD

A SC Genemuiden3–2

H VVV Venlo2–4

A Jong PSV U210–1

H Emmen0–3

A Den Bosch1–1

Head to head

Den

Draw

Dordrecht

Oct 2026Den Bosch – Dordrecht1–1

Jan 2026Dordrecht – Den Bosch3–2

Sept 2025Den Bosch – Dordrecht3–3

Apr 2025Dordrecht – Den Bosch4–0

Dec 2024Den Bosch – Dordrecht2–3

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Heracles12+2329

2VVV Venlo13+1528

3Almere City FC13+1425

4Roda13+525

5Emmen13+225

6NAC Breda12+321

7FC Volendam13+819

8Den Bosch13+218

9Vitesse12-117

10Jong AZ13+417

Match preview

Our model makes Den Bosch clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.82 for Den Bosch, 1.25 for Dordrecht), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Den Bosch sit 8th on 18 points; Dordrecht are 18th on 11.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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