Over 1.5 goals@1.68
Over 1.5
60%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 24Monday, 19 October 2026 · Stora Valla
Degerfors IF
14th · 20 pts1–2FULL TIME
Kalmar FF
13th · 23 pts39% Degerfors
31% Draw
30% Kalmar
OUR PICK
Degerfors IF to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.56
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.92
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.56X3.2723.30
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.48
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.66
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.66
NG
60%
Double chance@1.43
1X
70%
Season stats
Degerfors IFKalmar FF0.8Goals per game0.9
1.7Conceded per game1.6
0.74Points per game0.85
19%Win rate22%
-24Goal difference-19
1Form, last 5 (pts)4
Degerfors IF form
LLLLDA Djurgardens IF2–1
H Vasteras SK FK0–3
A BK Hacken4–0
H Kalmar FF1–2
A Mjallby AIF1–1
Kalmar FF form
LLWLDH Gais0–1
H IF Brommapojkarna0–3
A Degerfors IF1–2
A Malmo FF1–0
A IFK Norrkoping0–0
Head to head
1
Degerfors
0
Draw
4
Kalmar
Oct 2026Degerfors IF – Kalmar FF1–2
May 2026Kalmar FF – Degerfors IF2–1
Oct 2023Degerfors IF – Kalmar FF1–3
Jun 2023Kalmar FF – Degerfors IF2–1
Jul 2022Degerfors IF – Kalmar FF2–1
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken27+1849
5IF Elfsborg27+1446
6Vasteras SK FK27+244
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm27-438
9IFK Goteborg27-1038
10Gais27+737
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Degerfors IF 39%, the draw 31%, Kalmar FF 30%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.09 for Degerfors IF, 0.92 for Kalmar FF), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Degerfors IF sit 14th on 20 points; Kalmar FF are 13th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.