Over 1.5 goals@1.97
Over 1.5
51%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 35Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estadio Juan Pasquale
Defensores De Belgrano
15th · 39 pts0–0FULL TIME
San Miguel
18th · 33 pts42% Defensores
33% Draw
25% San
OUR PICK
Defensores De Belgrano to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.70
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.40X2.9924.01
Goals 2.5Over3.93Under1.32
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.47
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.32
Under 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.47
NG
68%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
Defensores De BelgranoSan Miguel0.7Goals per game0.8
0.9Conceded per game1.2
1.08Points per game0.92
22%Win rate17%
-9Goal difference-15
3Form, last 5 (pts)2
Defensores De Belgrano form
LDDLDA Colon Santa Fe2–0
H San Miguel0–0
A San Telmo0–0
H Acassuso0–3
A Chaco For Ever2–2
San Miguel form
LDLDLH Deportivo Madryn0–1
A Defensores De Belgrano0–0
H Ciudad de Bolívar1–2
A Almirante Brown1–1
H Atletico Mitre0–2
Head to head
1
Defensores
3
Draw
0
San
Oct 2026Defensores De Belgrano – San Miguel0–0
Jun 2026San Miguel – Defensores De Belgrano0–0
Apr 2018San Miguel – Defensores De Belgrano0–0
Nov 2017Defensores De Belgrano – San Miguel3–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Defensores De Belgrano slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 33% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (1.00 for Defensores De Belgrano, 0.70 for San Miguel), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Defensores De Belgrano sit 15th on 39 points; San Miguel are 18th on 33.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.