Over 1.5 goals@2.49
Over 1.5
40%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Juan Pasquale
Defensores De Belgrano
14th · 39 pts0–3FULL TIME
Acassuso
17th · 35 pts40% Defensores
38% Draw
22% Acassuso
OUR PICK
Defensores De Belgrano to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
0.84 – 0.54
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.50X2.6424.54
Goals 2.5Over5.90Under1.19
Both scoreGG3.93NG1.31
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.19
Under 2.5
84%
Both teams to score@1.31
NG
76%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
Defensores De BelgranoAcassuso0.7Goals per game0.7
0.9Conceded per game1.0
1.08Points per game0.97
22%Win rate22%
-9Goal difference-10
3Form, last 5 (pts)6
Defensores De Belgrano form
LDDLDA Colon Santa Fe2–0
H San Miguel0–0
A San Telmo0–0
H Acassuso0–3
A Chaco For Ever2–2
Acassuso form
DDDWLH Ferro Carril Oeste0–0
A Central Norte0–0
H Deportivo Madryn0–0
A Defensores De Belgrano0–3
H Ciudad de Bolívar0–1
Head to head
1
Defensores
2
Draw
2
Acassuso
Oct 2026Defensores De Belgrano – Acassuso0–3
May 2026Acassuso – Defensores De Belgrano1–0
Feb 2018Acassuso – Defensores De Belgrano0–0
Sept 2017Defensores De Belgrano – Acassuso2–1
Jun 2017Acassuso – Defensores De Belgrano0–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Defensores De Belgrano slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 38% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.4 goals in total (0.84 for Defensores De Belgrano, 0.54 for Acassuso), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Defensores De Belgrano sit 14th on 39 points; Acassuso are 17th on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.