Over 1.5 goals@1.78
Over 1.5
56%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio Luis Franzini
Defensor Sporting
11th · 39 pts3–3FULL TIME
Racing Montevideo
5th · 60 pts26% Defensor
32% Draw
42% Racing
OUR PICK
Racing Montevideo to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.81X3.1722.37
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.41
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.57
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.57
NG
64%
Double chance@1.36
X2
74%
Season stats
Defensor SportingRacing Montevideo1.0Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.11Points per game1.71
26%Win rate46%
-8Goal difference14
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Defensor Sporting form
WDLLLA Progreso0–2
H Racing Montevideo3–3
A Boston River1–0
H Cerro2–3
A Albion FC3–2
Racing Montevideo form
WDWLLH Cerro Largo3–1
A Defensor Sporting3–3
H Wanderers3–0
A Juventud2–0
H Penarol0–1
Head to head
2
Defensor
3
Draw
0
Racing
Oct 2026Defensor Sporting – Racing Montevideo3–3
May 2026Racing Montevideo – Defensor Sporting0–0
Apr 2026Racing Montevideo – Defensor Sporting1–1
Aug 2025Racing Montevideo – Defensor Sporting0–1
Feb 2025Defensor Sporting – Racing Montevideo2–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado35+2263
3Atletico Torque35+1863
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC35+347
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Racing Montevideo slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.79 for Defensor Sporting, 1.09 for Racing Montevideo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Defensor Sporting sit 11th on 39 points; Racing Montevideo are 5th on 60.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.