Over 1.5 goals@1.61
Over 1.5
62%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Luis Franzini
Defensor Sporting
11th · 39 pts2–3FULL TIME
Cerro
14th · 37 pts53% Defensor
28% Draw
20% Cerro
OUR PICK
Defensor Sporting to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.72
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X3.6025.12
Goals 2.5Over2.70Under1.54
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Under 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.24
1X
80%
Season stats
Defensor SportingCerro1.0Goals per game0.8
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.11Points per game1.06
26%Win rate29%
-8Goal difference-24
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Defensor Sporting form
WDLLLA Progreso0–2
H Racing Montevideo3–3
A Boston River1–0
H Cerro2–3
A Albion FC3–2
Cerro form
LLDWLH Central Espanol1–2
A Atletico Torque3–1
H Cerro Largo1–1
A Defensor Sporting2–3
H Wanderers0–2
Head to head
2
Defensor
0
Draw
3
Cerro
Oct 2026Defensor Sporting – Cerro2–3
Aug 2026Defensor Sporting – Cerro2–1
Apr 2026Cerro – Defensor Sporting1–0
Oct 2025Cerro – Defensor Sporting1–0
Jun 2025Defensor Sporting – Cerro2–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
3Atletico Torque34+1760
4Racing Montevideo35+1460
5Club Nacional34+1058
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Defensor Sporting clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.38 for Defensor Sporting, 0.72 for Cerro), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Defensor Sporting sit 11th on 39 points; Cerro are 14th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.