Over 1.5 goals@1.72
Over 1.5
58%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio Norberto Tomaghello
Defensa Y Justicia
10th · 19 pts3–0FULL TIME
San Lorenzo
7th · 22 pts29% Defensa
31% Draw
40% San
OUR PICK
San Lorenzo to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.48X3.2322.48
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.63
NG
61%
Double chance@1.40
X2
71%
Season stats
Defensa Y JusticiaSan Lorenzo1.1Goals per game0.9
1.3Conceded per game0.9
1.19Points per game1.38
25%Win rate31%
-3Goal difference0
10Form, last 5 (pts)8
Defensa Y Justicia form
DWLWWH Independiente1–1
A Talleres Cordoba1–2
H Instituto Cordoba0–1
A Union Santa Fe0–2
H San Lorenzo3–0
San Lorenzo form
DDWWLA Velez Sarsfield2–2
H Newells Old Boys0–0
A Estudiantes L.P.1–2
H Deportivo Riestra1–0
A Defensa Y Justicia3–0
Head to head
4
Defensa
1
Draw
0
San
Oct 2026Defensa Y Justicia – San Lorenzo3–0
Mar 2026San Lorenzo – Defensa Y Justicia2–5
Sept 2024Defensa Y Justicia – San Lorenzo0–0
Apr 2024San Lorenzo – Defensa Y Justicia0–2
Nov 2023Defensa Y Justicia – San Lorenzo1–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes San Lorenzo slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.87 for Defensa Y Justicia, 1.09 for San Lorenzo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Defensa Y Justicia sit 10th on 19 points; San Lorenzo are 7th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.