Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 15Monday, 2 November 2026 · Estadio Norberto Tomaghello
Defensa Y Justicia
10th · 19 pts23:00KICK-OFF WAT
Independiente
5th · 24 pts36% Defensa
24% Draw
40% Independiente
OUR PICK
Independiente to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.53
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.53
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.77X4.1022.53
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Defensa Y JusticiaIndependiente1.1Goals per game1.5
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.19Points per game1.50
25%Win rate38%
-3Goal difference4
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
Defensa Y Justicia form
No recent matches.
Independiente form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Defensa
0
Draw
0
Independiente
These sides haven't met recently.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Defensa Y Justicia 36%, the draw 24%, Independiente 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.45 for Defensa Y Justicia, 1.53 for Independiente), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Defensa Y Justicia sit 10th on 19 points; Independiente are 5th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.