Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · De Vijverberg
De Graafschap
14th · 15 pts1–1FULL TIME
Waalwijk
12th · 16 pts30% De
23% Draw
47% Waalwijk
OUR PICK
Waalwijk to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.82
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.29X4.3922.14
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
De GraafschapWaalwijk1.3Goals per game1.7
2.1Conceded per game1.5
1.15Points per game1.23
31%Win rate23%
-10Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
De Graafschap form
WLDLWA FC Volendam1–2
A Roda1–0
H Waalwijk1–1
A Jong Ajax2–1
H Jong Utrecht2–1
Waalwijk form
LDDDLH Almere City FC1–2
A Barendrecht2–2
A De Graafschap1–1
H FC Volendam1–1
A Heracles3–0
Head to head
2
De
2
Draw
1
Waalwijk
Oct 2026De Graafschap – Waalwijk1–1
Jan 2026De Graafschap – Waalwijk2–4
Nov 2025Waalwijk – De Graafschap1–4
Mar 2018De Graafschap – Waalwijk1–0
Sept 2017Waalwijk – De Graafschap0–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Waalwijk slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.43 for De Graafschap, 1.82 for Waalwijk), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
De Graafschap sit 14th on 15 points; Waalwijk are 12th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.