Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · De Vijverberg
De Graafschap
14th · 15 pts2–1FULL TIME
Jong Utrecht
20th · 7 pts46% De
21% Draw
33% Jong
OUR PICK
De Graafschap to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.73
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X4.7623.06
Goals 2.5Over1.37Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.39NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.37
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.39
GG
72%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
De GraafschapJong Utrecht1.3Goals per game1.6
2.1Conceded per game2.6
1.15Points per game0.58
31%Win rate17%
-10Goal difference-12
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
De Graafschap form
WLDLWA FC Volendam1–2
A Roda1–0
H Waalwijk1–1
A Jong Ajax2–1
H Jong Utrecht2–1
Jong Utrecht form
LLLLWA FC Volendam6–2
H Roda1–2
A De Graafschap2–1
H VVV Venlo1–3
H Jong Ajax6–1
Head to head
3
De
2
Draw
0
Jong
Oct 2026De Graafschap – Jong Utrecht2–1
Feb 2026De Graafschap – Jong Utrecht1–0
Dec 2025Jong Utrecht – De Graafschap2–3
Jan 2025Jong Utrecht – De Graafschap1–1
Aug 2024De Graafschap – Jong Utrecht2–2
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes De Graafschap slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.08 for De Graafschap, 1.73 for Jong Utrecht), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
De Graafschap sit 14th on 15 points; Jong Utrecht are 20th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.