Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 13Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Gardens of the Hippodrome
Danubio
16th · 32 pts1–2FULL TIME
Club Nacional
4th · 61 pts27% Danubio
27% Draw
46% Club
OUR PICK
Club Nacional to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.77X3.6922.16
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.88
NG
53%
Double chance@1.36
X2
73%
Season stats
DanubioClub Nacional0.8Goals per game1.5
1.3Conceded per game1.2
0.91Points per game1.74
17%Win rate54%
-16Goal difference11
6Form, last 5 (pts)12
Danubio form
No recent matches.
Club Nacional form
WLWWWA Danubio1–2
H Liverpool Montevideo0–1
H Deportivo Maldonado3–2
H Rentistas3–0
A Central Espanol0–1
Head to head
0
Danubio
0
Draw
0
Club
These sides haven't met recently.
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Club Nacional slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.98 for Danubio, 1.39 for Club Nacional), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Danubio sit 16th on 32 points; Club Nacional are 4th on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.