Over 1.5 goals@1.82
Over 1.5
55%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 9Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Gardens of the Hippodrome
Danubio
16th · 32 pts2–1FULL TIME
Cerro Largo
12th · 37 pts33% Danubio
32% Draw
34% Cerro
OUR PICK
Cerro Largo to win
Model probability 34% · fair odds
2.91
Expected goals
0.91 – 0.93
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.01X3.0822.91
Goals 2.5Over3.37Under1.39
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.57
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Under 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.57
NG
64%
Double chance@1.48
12
68%
Season stats
DanubioCerro Largo0.8Goals per game0.9
1.3Conceded per game1.2
0.91Points per game1.06
17%Win rate26%
-16Goal difference-8
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Danubio form
LWLWWH Club Nacional1–2
A Wanderers Durazno0–3
A Deportivo Maldonado2–1
H Central Espanol1–0
A Central Espanol0–6
Cerro Largo form
LWLDLA Racing Montevideo3–1
H Boston River2–0
A Liverpool Montevideo1–0
A Cerro1–1
H Albion FC0–1
Head to head
1
Danubio
2
Draw
2
Cerro
Oct 2026Danubio – Cerro Largo2–1
Mar 2026Cerro Largo – Danubio2–0
Aug 2025Cerro Largo – Danubio1–0
Mar 2025Cerro Largo – Danubio2–2
Feb 2025Danubio – Cerro Largo0–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Danubio 33%, the draw 32%, Cerro Largo 34%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (0.91 for Danubio, 0.93 for Cerro Largo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Danubio sit 16th on 32 points; Cerro Largo are 12th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.