Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Gardens of the Hippodrome
Danubio
16th · 32 pts1–0FULL TIME
Central Espanol
10th · 41 pts37% Danubio
30% Draw
33% Central
OUR PICK
Danubio to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.69
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.03
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.69X3.3823.01
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.76
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.76
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
70%
Season stats
DanubioCentral Espanol0.8Goals per game1.0
1.3Conceded per game1.4
0.91Points per game1.17
17%Win rate31%
-16Goal difference-13
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
Danubio form
LWLWWH Club Nacional1–2
A Wanderers Durazno0–3
A Deportivo Maldonado2–1
H Central Espanol1–0
A Central Espanol0–6
Central Espanol form
WLLLLA Cerro1–2
H Albion FC1–3
A Danubio1–0
H Danubio0–6
H Club Nacional0–1
Head to head
2
Danubio
3
Draw
0
Central
Oct 2026Danubio – Central Espanol1–0
Oct 2026Central Espanol – Danubio0–6
Apr 2026Central Espanol – Danubio2–2
Sept 2021Danubio – Central Espanol1–1
Jun 2021Central Espanol – Danubio0–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Danubio 37%, the draw 30%, Central Espanol 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.11 for Danubio, 1.03 for Central Espanol), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Danubio sit 16th on 32 points; Central Espanol are 10th on 41.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.