Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 25Saturday, 24 October 2026 · La Portada
D. La Serena
9th · 34 pts3–1FULL TIME
Concepción
11th · 32 pts40% D.
27% Draw
32% Concepción
OUR PICK
D. La Serena to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.47
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.14
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.47X3.6823.09
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
D. La SerenaConcepción1.5Goals per game1.1
1.6Conceded per game1.2
1.31Points per game1.28
31%Win rate36%
-3Goal difference-3
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
D. La Serena form
DWLLWA Huachipato0–0
H Concepción3–1
A Everton de Vina3–2
H Universidad de Chile0–3
H Nublense2–1
Concepción form
WLDLLH Palestino1–0
A D. La Serena3–1
H Union La Calera1–1
A O'Higgins2–0
H O'Higgins0–1
Head to head
1
D.
1
Draw
0
Concepción
Oct 2026D. La Serena – Concepción3–1
Apr 2026Concepción – D. La Serena3–3
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Everton de Vina26+1040
5Palestino25+338
6Deportes Limache25+937
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Nublense26-935
9D. La Serena26-334
10Huachipato25-633
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: D. La Serena 40%, the draw 27%, Concepción 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.31 for D. La Serena, 1.14 for Concepción), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
D. La Serena sit 9th on 34 points; Concepción are 11th on 32.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.