Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 25Saturday, 24 October 2026 · La Portada
D. La Serena
10th · 34 pts3–1FULL TIME
Concepción
8th · 35 pts40% D.
28% Draw
33% Concepción
OUR PICK
D. La Serena to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.53
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.13
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.53X3.6323.05
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
D. La SerenaConcepción1.5Goals per game1.1
1.6Conceded per game1.2
1.31Points per game1.35
31%Win rate38%
-3Goal difference-2
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
D. La Serena form
DWLLWA Huachipato0–0
H Concepción3–1
A Everton de Vina3–2
H Universidad de Chile0–3
H Nublense2–1
Concepción form
WLDLLH Palestino1–0
A D. La Serena3–1
H Union La Calera1–1
A O'Higgins2–0
H O'Higgins0–1
Head to head
1
D.
1
Draw
0
Concepción
Oct 2026D. La Serena – Concepción3–1
Apr 2026Concepción – D. La Serena3–3
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Deportes Limache26+1140
5Everton de Vina26+1040
6Palestino26+238
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Concepción26-235
9Nublense26-935
10D. La Serena26-334
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: D. La Serena 40%, the draw 28%, Concepción 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.27 for D. La Serena, 1.13 for Concepción), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
D. La Serena sit 10th on 34 points; Concepción are 8th on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.