Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
BRASerie B · Matchday 31Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Arena Pantanal
Cuiaba
13th · 47 pts2–0FULL TIME
Ponte Preta
20th · 15 pts71% Cuiaba
21% Draw
8% Ponte
OUR PICK
Cuiaba to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.40
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.43
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.40X4.83212.40
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.41
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.41
NG
71%
Double chance@1.09
1X
92%
Season stats
CuiabaPonte Preta0.9Goals per game0.6
0.8Conceded per game2.2
1.34Points per game0.42
31%Win rate8%
4Goal difference-57
4Form, last 5 (pts)2
Cuiaba form
LLLLDH São Bernardo1–2
A America Mineiro1–0
A Londrina1–0
H Avai0–1
A Vila Nova0–0
Ponte Preta form
LDDLLA Criciuma2–0
H Fortaleza EC2–2
H Atletico Goianiense1–1
A Novorizontino5–1
H Juventude0–2
Head to head
3
Cuiaba
1
Draw
1
Ponte
Oct 2026Cuiaba – Ponte Preta2–0
Jun 2026Ponte Preta – Cuiaba1–2
Jan 2021Ponte Preta – Cuiaba2–2
Oct 2020Cuiaba – Ponte Preta2–1
Sept 2019Ponte Preta – Cuiaba3–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Juventude36+2265
2Novorizontino35+3264
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10Operario-PR35-151
Match preview
Our model makes Cuiaba clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.81 for Cuiaba, 0.43 for Ponte Preta), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cuiaba sit 13th on 47 points; Ponte Preta are 20th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.