Over 1.5 goals@1.84
Over 1.5
54%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Arena Pantanal
Cuiaba
13th · 47 pts0–1FULL TIME
Avai
17th · 37 pts50% Cuiaba
31% Draw
19% Avai
OUR PICK
Cuiaba to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.62
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.99X3.2625.22
Goals 2.5Over3.49Under1.38
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Under 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.48
NG
68%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
CuiabaAvai0.9Goals per game0.9
0.8Conceded per game1.3
1.31Points per game1.03
31%Win rate28%
3Goal difference-13
1Form, last 5 (pts)7
Cuiaba form
LLLLDH São Bernardo1–2
A America Mineiro1–0
A Londrina1–0
H Avai0–1
A Vila Nova0–0
Avai form
LLDWWA Nautico Recife1–0
H Botafogo SP0–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Cuiaba0–1
H Londrina2–1
Head to head
1
Cuiaba
1
Draw
3
Avai
Oct 2026Cuiaba – Avai0–1
Jun 2026Avai – Cuiaba1–0
Aug 2025Avai – Cuiaba2–0
Apr 2025Cuiaba – Avai2–2
Oct 2022Cuiaba – Avai1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Cuiaba clear favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.20 for Cuiaba, 0.62 for Avai), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cuiaba sit 13th on 47 points; Avai are 17th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.