Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 15Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Estadio General Santander
Cucuta
19th · 16 pts1–0FULL TIME
Atletico Nacional
1st · 40 pts13% Cucuta
18% Draw
69% Atletico
OUR PICK
Atletico Nacional to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
0.91 – 2.34
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.68X5.6321.44
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.15
X2
87%
Season stats
CucutaAtletico Nacional1.2Goals per game1.8
1.8Conceded per game0.8
0.84Points per game2.11
16%Win rate68%
-13Goal difference20
9Form, last 5 (pts)12
Cucuta form
LLWWWH Águilas Doradas0–2
A America de Cali3–1
H Atletico Nacional1–0
A Chico0–1
H Deportivo Pereira4–0
Atletico Nacional form
WWWLWH Santa Fe2–0
H Independiente Medellin2–1
H Deportivo Pasto3–0
A Cucuta1–0
A Chico1–4
Head to head
1
Cucuta
1
Draw
3
Atletico
Oct 2026Cucuta – Atletico Nacional1–0
Apr 2026Atletico Nacional – Cucuta0–0
Aug 2025Cucuta – Atletico Nacional0–3
Jul 2025Atletico Nacional – Cucuta1–0
Nov 2020Atletico Nacional – Cucuta3–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Nacional clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (0.91 for Cucuta, 2.34 for Atletico Nacional), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cucuta sit 19th on 16 points; Atletico Nacional are 1st on 40.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.