Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
BULFirst League · Matchday 12Monday, 26 October 2026 · Balgarska Armiya Stadium
CSKA Sofia
2nd · 31 pts2–0FULL TIME
Ludogorets
3rd · 29 pts42% CSKA
26% Draw
32% Ludogorets
OUR PICK
CSKA Sofia to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.38X3.7823.16
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.93
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
CSKA SofiaLudogorets2.2Goals per game2.0
0.7Conceded per game0.8
2.38Points per game2.42
69%Win rate75%
20Goal difference15
11Form, last 5 (pts)12
CSKA Sofia form
DWDWLH Slavia Sofia0–0
H Ludogorets2–0
A FC Nordsjaelland2–2
A Nesebar0–2
H Monaco1–2
Ludogorets form
WLWWWA Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–3
A CSKA Sofia2–0
A Beroe0–3
H Arda Kardzhali5–0
H Cherno More Varna5–0
Head to head
3
CSKA
1
Draw
1
Ludogorets
Oct 2026CSKA Sofia – Ludogorets2–0
May 2026Ludogorets – CSKA Sofia1–0
May 2026CSKA Sofia – Ludogorets1–0
Apr 2026CSKA Sofia – Ludogorets0–0
Apr 2026Ludogorets – CSKA Sofia1–2
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali13-121
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Cherno More Varna13-812
10Dunav Ruse13-711
Match preview
Our model makes CSKA Sofia slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.39 for CSKA Sofia, 1.17 for Ludogorets), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
CSKA Sofia sit 2nd on 31 points; Ludogorets are 3rd on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.